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Wednesday, March 2, 2011
BYU Pretender or Contender?
The biggest controversy surrounds one of the biggest wins in BYU school history. After than #7 Cougars roared into San Diego and knocked of the sixth ranked San Diego State Aztecs for the 2nd time this season the Cougars flexed their muscle led by Jimmer Fredette's 25 points and 9 assists. Fredette boldly predicted pre-season that the Cougs would run the table this season and go undefeated. Well no one is really gonna bash the Cougars so far as the only blemishes up till San Diego State were losses on the road to defending Mountain West Champion New Mexico in the Pit and at Pac 10 front runner UCLA in famed Pauley Pavillion; two arenas with a history of home court advantage. On the resume were some big wins against #10 Arizona and twice beating #6 San Diego State.
Well all of that is over now. The Cougars are #3 in the nation and they just lost their leading big man. Not Jimmer but the big guy 6'9" Brandon Davies. The sophomore a starter in 26 games this season was suspended for the remainder of the season for what could be speculated as extra celebratory conduct in San Diego after the historical victory.
The loss of Davies is magnified by how the Cougars won on Saturday. BYU won by playing great team basketball. No one would doubt the Cougars were capable of winning a national title with their dead eye three point shooting which was very timely hitting 14-24 most of them in the second half to ward off any Aztec comebacks. The Cougars also won with solid defense limiting the sixth ranked team in the nation to 67 points. You cannot win without rebounding and Davies was a big part of this equation leading the Cougars in rebounding. Davies was also the big guy you saw early beating all of the ultra athletic Aztecs down the floor. Davies also brings a 53% shooting touch from the floor so he will be missed.
How missed will Davies be? Maybe not in the early rounds as BYU has too much quality for other teams to handle but a good indicator of how far they will travel will start with this week's rematch at the Mariott Center in Provo, Utah as they attempt to avenge their only conference loss of the season to New Mexico. Should the Cougars win this game it will indicate how well they should do in the first couple of rounds without Davies. The latter stages of the Mountain West Conference Tournament against either San Diego State or UNLV might be a better indicator as the the tournament games will be played on neutral sites.
How far will the Cougars go in the NCAA tournament? The Cougars should get a top 2 seed. Fredette is a star capable of taking games over and his supporting cast has played together for a couple of years now leading to great team chemistry. The chemistry is good enough to overcome the loss of Davies who was a solid inside presence, top rebounder, and efficient scorer. The Cougars also have enough depth to offset the loss of Davies but the loss of Davies eats into the Cougars depth on the bench and this is where the BYU will feel it most. So once out of the first two rounds don't expect the Cougars to overcome a higher seeded team. Even if the Cougars are seeded #1 in their region look for a two or three seed to take them out. If the Cougars can play in a region where upsets knock out the competition expect the Cougars to make a run to Houston. This team is for real they just have a question mark attached with the loss of a key player
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