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Saturday, October 30, 2010

Halloween Ambush for Top Ten in NCAA

Sticking to the basic blue print for Halloween upsets and there is nothing better than going with the home dogs. Literally we went with the dogs, the North Carolina State Wolfpack on Thursday and last night the UConn Huskies. Moving into Saturday it gets a bit eerie as we have to take non-canine home dogs with the USC Trojans plus the 7.5 points in Los Angeles on natural grass against the canine toothed Ducks from Oregon who have more than sufficient bite. The other half of the home dogs Saturday duo is the Air Force Academy to dash out the BCS hopes and undefeated season for the #8 ranked Utah Utes.

The home teams that will be ready for ambush are the Oregon State Beavers -2.5 against California and the high powered Cornhuskers from Nebrasksa to completely wipe the artificial turf floor with #7 Missouri.

Watch at least three of the top ten teams fall this weekend and possibly more.

Friday, October 29, 2010

Sticking with the Dogs


The weekend before Halloween funny things happen. Last year the Oregon Ducks put the official dethroning of USC dominance over the Pac-10 on official hiatus as the Ducks assumed not only Pacific Coast gridiron dominance over all teams not named Ohio State but has assaulted the record books this year making a statement that the football national championship will go through Eugene this year. This Halloween as I look down on my faithful Akita/Chow mix, Goober I am all over the dogs. Not only the underdogs as in North Carolina State Wolfpack but tonight the home underdog University of Connecticut Huskies as they host West Virginia getting a hefty 7.5 points.

The rushing attack of UConn led by Jordan Todman and a veteran offensive line plus the preachings of head coach Randy Edsall who is building a winner in East Hartford focused on the running attack. Despite being a lean year for the Huskies so far with a 3-4 record and high hopes of winning the Big East low lighted by last weeks shut out loss against lowly Louisville the Huskies return to the friendly confines of their home field on a Friday night before Halloween against an average West Virginia team fresh off a home loss to Syracuse.

The only highlight of either team is the Mountaineer defense which is 4th best in the country and keeps their team in games. Keeping the Mountaineers in games on the road this year has kept games close in a loss to SEC powerhouse LSU along with middle of the pack MAC squad Marshall. Now it's time to go on the road again for the Mountaineers. So far this year the Mountaineers have proven they don't play very well on the road while UConn has been undefeated at home in 2010. With such great proven results there is no reason to believe the Huskies will not only win the game at home but should cover the touchdown spread in an important conference game in a wide open Big East. With a win this week the Huskies get in the win column in the Big East. A loss all but ends the season. A win tonight and the Huskies are back playing .500 ball in pursuit of another winning season and bowl game. Too much on the line for the Huskies tonight. Too much good karma: home field, Friday night lights, plus the home team is getting points on Halloween. These Huskies will be jacked to prove their worth while the Mountaineers are on the road which has not been favorable for the boys from Morgantown this year certainly not looking like a dominant team on the road which is necessary to cover a touchdown spread.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Running with the Pack


Every now and than the Hacksaw has to take the wife out to buy cosmetics, hair and all sorts of women crap. So I missed getting my posting here but I figure if there is a place that will trust a pick it's when the pick is not covering the spread.

Tom O'Brein left a cushy job at Boston College to run the show in Raleigh, North Carolina. He didn't leave one conference to compete in another he stayed in the ACC and went for a job where he felt he could have a greater chance at winning a national title. At Boston College, O'Brein's teams were undefeated in bowl games going 8-0. He is the veteran coach in this duel with Florida State as Jimbo Fisher is the new guy. The Noles are playing better doing great tonight leading the Wolfpack 14-7 with 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter. But this is NC State's home field, they have the athletes and the stability of the O'Brein era.

Take the Wolfpack and 4 points despite early turnovers to win this game.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Monday Night Mirror Images


Tonight the 3-2 Tennessee Titans travel to Jacksonville to take on their AFC South rival 3-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. Both teams have no name defenses. The biggest star on either defense is former Raider free agent signing by the Jaguars, linebacker Kirk Morrison a tackling machine. Both teams have long tenured coaching staffs. Jack Del Rio has been with the Jaguars since 2003 with the message of defense being the staple to the teams success. Jeff Fisher pre-dates the Titans as the last head coach of the Houston Oilers who eventually moved to Nashville from Memphis while originating in Houston where Jeff Fisher was the big kahuna of the powder blue Oilers. Fisher has always emphasized the running game and defense like his counterpart.

Both teams have the runners also with Maurice Jones (Drew) and Chris Johnson. Jones is a battering ram of a back at 5'6" unless he is wearing high heels and weighing in at a bulky 215lbs of all legs which makes for misery for opposing tacklers looking for something to grab ahold of. In a contrast of style Chris Johnson is pure speed that will hit the holes and run right past linebackers and the secondary en route to the end zone.

Both teams also feature much maligned quarterbacks. Vince Young of the Titans never couldn't get his head on straight for a few years while jumping in and out of the starting role while David Garrard a less heralded QB has endured the same path of Young. Ironically both QB's can win with their legs just as much as their arms. Like the running backs both QB's contrast in that Young is a tall fleet footed quarterback that can outrun the defenses while Garrard is a thick legged QB that has the power to run through tackles if need be.

The receiving corps of both teams is just the same. Unheralded wide receivers. The Titans feature much traveled Nate Burelson along with young upstart Kenny Britt. On the other side of the ball it's little known Mike Sims Walker along with Mike Thomas. Virtually no game breakers.


Team wise this is scary its so similar. The Titans are the 5th best rushing team in the league trailing the 3rd best running team in the league the Jaguars. Defensively the Jaguars are 12th best against the run while their Monday night opponent is two slots higher at 10th best. If that isn't similar enough then the pass is ridiculously similar. The Titans has the 29th pass offense and the 26th best defense against the pass while the Jaguars are the 26th best in passing while their defense ranks 29th.


So what are the odds makers looking at when they decided to make the Titans a 3 point favorite. Are the Titans a 9 point favorite on a neutral field. Did the Jaguars not just defeat the reigning AFC champion Colts two weeks ago? This game is too close and too close to make the road team the favorite. Take the Jaguars plus the 3 points and enjoy your winnings.

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Road "Beaver" Warriors


Has Oregon State played a game at home all season? I wonder because every time the Beavers are in a big game it's been on the road. Early in the season they played in Dallas basically a home field for TCU and were beaten by 10 in a game much tighter than the score. Since that game TCU has regularly buried their opponents. Against Boise State on the smurf turf in Idaho there Beaver's were the most popular team in the country as the last barrier between Boise State and an undefeated season with the exception of fast rising Nevada. Last week the 2-2 Beavers went on the road and played their third top 10 team this season on the road. This time the Beavers finally slayed the giant despite losing star receiver James Rodgers for the season with an ACL injury. This week is another big game because this is about Oregon State proving they are a top 15 team rather than being just the best 3-2 in the NCAA.

This week is a big road game also. This week the Beavers can get two games over .500 something they have not been able to do so far this year despite high expectation in Corvallis. The test will not be an easy one as the Beavers travel to Seattle to take on the Huskies a team two weeks removed from knocking off undefeated USC and the inconsistent team that took their lumps in a 24-14 loss to Arizona State. As a matter of fact the Huskies are also a team that gave up 56 points at home to Nebraska and also was the only win for a severely porous BYU squad. The formula for whipping Washington is shut down Jake Locker and breeze your way to victory. Nebraska shut him down while Arizona State and BYU found ways to contain him thus rendering the Huskies worthless. The Beavers are so well battle tested they should have no problem causing Locker severe headaches after facing Andy Dalton, Nick Foles, and and Kellen Moore. Locker is just another QB.

The Beavers might not spank the Huskies. It should be a close game but the Beavers will win by at least 3. These Beavers are too good. The crowd in Seattle should not faze the Beavers. The talent of the projected overall #1 NFL prospect in Jake Locker will not be enough to defeat the Beavers. Last but not least the loss of senior James Rodgers is a major rallying point for these Beavers to win one of the Gipper deal. Who on this Beaver team is about to let up in this game and not give 100%. There will be no sleep walking for the Beavers in Seattle as that would be the only way for this game to go in favor of the Huskies. The Huskies are well coached but the talent level is not there to win the big games and this is too big of a game, much bigger than USC on the road where there were minimal expectation. Now the Huskies need to win to be in the position to get to a bowl game, for Oregon State they are making a run at the Pac-10 title along with a BCS bowl bid which their ranking should be pretty lofty by years end with losses to two of the top 4 teams in the country plus a win over a top 20 team in Arizona.

Take the Beavers -1.5. Locker will be having nightmares about furry little buck tooth animals after this Saturday night.

Must Win in Troy


For the first time in decades the college football focus on USC is not on USC but is focused on the Gamecocks of South Carolina. The USC Trojans in the post Pete Carroll era are an afterthought. The hiring of Lane Kiffin is becoming a joke. Barely post puberty the Head Coach of the Trojans has yet to post a winning record on any level. he lost and lost a lot with the NFL Raiders and in one season at Tennessee was not on the bowl radar. So far this season Kiffin and the Trojans are coming up short of their goal of winning all their games. In the big match-up against former SC offensive coordinator and young phenom Steve Sarkisian it was Sark who held the upper hand over Kiffin. Also an afterthought for the Raiders it was Sarkisian that was Al Davis's first choice for the Raiders and not Kiffin. It would be no surprise except for the inept character judgment of former AD Mike Garret that thought Kiffin was better fit to coach the Trojans than Sarkisian. So all is looking about as bleak as can be in the probation era for SC.

Not as bleak as the record might indicate. Let's face it Steve Sarkisian has the Trojans number. He could coach Washington State to a victory over his former employer. Than last week against a very tough, physical, and explosive Stanford team the Trojans held their own coming up just short in the end of snatching victory from defeat in Palo Alto.

This week it's California. A Cal team that gave up 52 points on the road to Nevada. Now Cal comes into the LA Colleseum. This is a must win for the Trojans, a must win for Kiffin and it's going to be up to the players. Matt Barkley and company need to show what Trojan football is all about. Play great defense it's a staple of SC and should not falter much from the Pete Carroll era although Carroll is a defensive genius who mentored Kiffin along with former NFL defensive coordinator and current SC defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin. After giving up 65 points in the last two games it's time for USC to step it up in a must win.

This will be a tight game and in a tight game there will be a winner and there will be a loser. The difference is this is a must win for the Trojans. They have lost the last two games by a total of 7 points. A missed 3rd down conversion by Washington and the Trojans are undefeated heading into Stanford and a bit more careful handling of the ball against Stanford and USC could be undefeated and favored by 9 points in this game. Instead it's just a couple of plays that has determined this minor 2 point spread which the Trojans should be taking out two weeks of frustrations looking to right the wrong.

Take the Trojans and give up the two points.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Thursday Night Smash Mouth


What else can you say about tonight's Kansas State Purple invasion into Lawrence, Kansas to face the 2-3 Jayhawks under first year coach Turner Gill. It's gonna be smash mouth football and the smashing is going to come on the dishing out end from the Wildcats and specifically one 230lb battering ram named Daniel Thomas and the mouth on the receiving end is going to be the 92nd ranked run defense of Kansas.

Last week the Wildcats were humiliated at home by a superior Nebraska team. Taylor Martinez the freshmen phenom ran wild on the K-State defense. Jordan Webb of KU is not Taylor Martinez and even if he was K-State's veteran team and coaching staff would not let this one get past them a second time as the Wildcats have been punished in practice to not let last week's ills occur again and the stars are aligned just right with a hapless KU defense to go along with one of the worst offenses in the nation.

The one plus for KU is they are at home where the frenzied crowd in a rival game can inspire a defense to play beyond their talent level for at least a half of football. The home crowd enthusiasm along with the Kansas State running attack should wear down the Jayhawks in what should be a lopsided victory making the 2.5 point spread something non-existent. The reasons for the line sitting at 2.5 is rival game, home field for the Jayhawks and the beat down K-State endured last week in Manhattan to the hands of one of the top football programs in the country Nebraska.

This week there is no Nebraska. Early on against Nebraska the Wildcats were able to move the ball but the Huskers bend but no break defense stymied the Wildcats early in the 1st quarter on 4th down to stop penetration into the Husker red zone. Once the Huskers got rolling it was downhill as the Wildcats had to play into Nebraska's strength and the Wildcat weakness of passing the ball while Jared Crick and company pinned back their ears and force in-completion after in-completion leading to a lot of second half punts.

This week the foot will be on the other side of the ball kicking behind and it will be the Wildcats kicking rather than being kicked.

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Beaver Dynamite


Beaver Dynamite it's been known to clear out rooms for youngsters across the nation but it's also the offensive punch of the Rodger's brothers up in Corvallis, Oregon. These two undersized brothers have proven time and time again against top competition that they can not only compete but are among the best players on the field. They showed up big in losses this year to #5 TCU in Dallas, Texas and than again two weeks ago in another tough road loss against than #3 Boise State on the most intimidating smurf turf known to man. This week the Beaver's continue the gautlet of road battles against #9 Arizona in Tucson.


Arizona has traditionally been a spoiler with lesser talent than there Pac 10 counterparts. Mike Stoops gets the 2nd and 3rd tiered athletes from California and Texas as the cornerstone to his program but these lesser known names are still talented and come up big in the big games. This is Oregon State coming into town, no the Ducks. OSU does not have the swagger of a USC or the rivalry of the better known brother upstate in Tempe. This is Oregon State a team that will fight you tooth and nail and it's just the way the Wildcats pull off upsets at home. Oregon State is a mirror image of Arizona. The Wildcards on offense though will be the Rodger's brothers for Oregon State. These guys will find ways to make big plays and get into the end zone. When the final gun is heard and these teams leave the field, every play will be important and the game will be deciding by inches and not more than a touchdown so take the Beavers +8.


The Beavers also have faced TCU losing by 10 down in Texas and than Boise State on the smurf turf losing by 13. Both games were tigher than the scores and have toughened the Beavers up for big road games. Tucson will be no tougher than Boise, Idaho. This is also a conference game. The Wildcats are expected to compete for the Pac 10 title while the Beavers are expected to be in the 2nd group of teams battling for a bowl game hence there will be a chip on these Beaver's shoulders with something to prove.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Thursday Night's Next Step


Bo Pelini has quickly made his mark as a head coach. He has done what no coach since Tom Osborne has done and that has been to make a believer out of Husker faithful and players. Frank Solich might have led the Cornhuskers to the national title game in 2001 only to get blown out by the University of Miami but he was always in the heavy shadows of Dr. Tom.

This week the Huskers travel to Manhattan, Kansas. Waiting for them will be old man Bill Snyder, his undefeated Wildcats, herculean running back Daniel Thomas and a national audience with some jacked up Wildcat students waiting for Bo Pelini's group. Is this an ambush. It has the makings of an ambush, only problem is this is a very important game for both the Huskers and Pelini. The #6 ranking in the nation means nothing to this group. It's all about proving that Nebraska football is back and losing to an un-ranked Wildcat squad could prove detrimental to these Huskers before they move to the Big Ten.

I expect the Huskers to shut down Thomas or at least limit the top offensive weapon for K-State. Two weeks ago when the Huskers were facing the alleged #1 NFL prospect in Jake Locker and Heisman Trophy candidate the black shirts stymied Locker with a 2-20 passing performance on regional television all but eliminating Locker from Heisman talk despite coming back this past week against USC leading a 4th quarter game winning come from behind drive that might have at least salvaged some of Locker's Husky legacy.

One thing is for sure, Nebraska and Bo Pelini know when the lights are on. Against South Dakota State this past week they won un-impressively 17-3. A win is a win though. This week the Thursday night game is on national television for everyone to watch and Nebraska should unveil a lot of defensive schemes that were non-existent against South Dakota State plus the offense should be ready to execute a more elaborate play book much like what they did in Seattle while hanging 56 on the Huskies. Bo Pelini comes from the coaching hotbed of NCAA football, Ohio the state with ties that has produced national championship coaches of this decade including Jim Tressel, Bob Stoops, Pete Carrol, Les Myles, Nick Saban, and Urban Meyer. It's all about winning the national title. Don't show your playbook to teams you should beat such as South Dakota State but unleash the fury and locker rooms speeches for nationally televised Thursday night games. It's time to perform for Nebraska and they have performed their last three outings in big games vs. Texas in the Big 12 title game last year, against Arizona in the bowl game, and this year on the road against Washington. Time to step up again Huskers in Manhattan, Kansas.

K-State will be tough on Thursday night but they will not win. As a betting man I am not sure if Nebraska will be able to exert their will on the Wildcats but I do know they should be able to win the game handily so teasing the score down from 11.5 to 5.5 is just what the bet doctor has ordered for Thursday night. A good tease for this game is Minnesota +28.5 on Saturday against Wisconsin in the morning.